I. Overview and analysis of the real estate market in 2012
1. Real estate investment
In 2012, nationwide investment in real estate development was 7180.4 billion yuan, with nominal growth of 16.2% over the previous year (the real growth was 14.9% after deducting the price factor). In particular, investment in residential houses was 4937.4 billion yuan, increased by 11.4%, accounting for 68.8% of the total investment in real estate development.
The growth of investment in real estate development showed a generally declining trend throughout the year (see Figure 1). Compared with the previous year, the growth fell down by 11.9 percentage points; compared with the growth of investment in fixed assets of the same period (with nominal growth of 20.6%, and real growth of 19.3% after deducting the price factor), the investment in real estate development in 2012 was lower.

Figure 1   Growth of investment in real estate development in 2012
全国房地产开发投资增速： Growth of nationwide investment in real estate development
Jan.-Dec. 2011   Jan.-Feb. 2012   Jan.-Mar.   Jan.-Apr.   Jan.-May.   Jan.-Jun.   Jan.-Jul.   Jan.-Aug.    Jan.-Sep.     Jan.-Oct.    Jan.-Nov.     Jan.-Dec.
2. Real estate supply
In 2012, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5,734,180,000 square meters, an increase of 13.2% compared with the previous year; in particular, the construction area of residential houses was 4,289,640,000 square meters, an increase of 10.6% compared with the previous year. The new housing construction area was 1,773,340,000 square meters, a decrease of 7.3% from the previous year; in particular, the new construction area of residential houses was 1,306,950,000 square meters, down by 11.2%. Housing completion area was 994,250,000 square meters, up by 7.3%; in particular, the completion area of residential houses was 790,430,000 square meters, up by 6.4%.
In 2012, the area of land acquired by real estate development enterprises was 356,670,000 square meters, down by 19.5% from the previous year; land transaction price was 741 billion yuan, down by 16.7%.
3. Real estate demand
Growth of commodity housing turnover and transaction area was in recovery. In 2012, the sales area of commodity housing was 1,113,040,000 square meters, up by 1.8% from the previous year, 2.6 percentage points lower than the growth in 2011; in particular, the sales area of residential houses increased by 2%, that of office buildings increased by 12.4% and that of commercial premise houses decreased by 1.4%. The sales revenue of commodity housing was 6445.6 billion yuan, up by 10%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that in 2011; in particular, sales revenue of residential houses increased by 10.9%, that of office buildings increased by 12.2%, and that of commercial premise houses increased by 4.8%.
II. Main features of real estate investment and market in 2012
1. Growth of real estate investment fell down relatively, and was also lower than the growth of fixed asset investment
(1) “Less land acquisition and slow construction” of real estate enterprises are an important reason for the growth decline of investment in real estate development.
 
(2) The construction of affordable housing has contributed to the maintenance of certain growth of the real estate market. The goal and task for affordable housing construction in 2012 was, under the prerequisite of ensuring quality, to basically complete 5 million apartments and start the construction of over 7 million apartments of affordable housing. According to estimates, there were at least 1700 apartments actually in construction in 2012. Correspondingly, the investment in affordable housing in 2012 was no less than that of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2011, contributing to 20-25% of the total investment in real estate development.
2. Demand regulation policies represented by limited purchasing and limited loaning has played a significant role
(1) Seeing from the perspective of demand, the policies have effectively curbed speculation, making personal rigid demand become the dominant demand in the market.
(2) Seeing from the perspective of from the supply, the change of demand guided the corresponding change of the structure of supply, namely, real estate development shifted from the development of residential housing to the development of commercial real estate, including office buildings and commercial premise houses. Notably, the increasing booming of commercial real estate brought the risk overheat in some areas. Since commercial real estate programs generally need a fostering period of 3-5 years, facing bigger capital pressure and operation risks than residential houses, once bubbles are formed in commercial real estate investment, the bubbles will be even harder to address and also even more harmful than those in residential housing investment
3. Effect of demand regulation on the flowing direction of real estate investment
(1) Investment flowed from first- and second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities. The housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities before regulation were relatively lower and boasting relatively large space for investment. Therefore, after limited purchasing measures were implemented in 36 large- and medium-cities, there was a trend that real estate investment was increasingly flowing to third- and fourth-tier cities. Yet the main problem at present is that, oversupply has been witnessed in the real estate markets in many third- and fourth-tier cities, with big investment risks lurking behind.
 
(2) Some private capital investment has flowed to foreign real estate markets. From an overall perspective, China has experienced the stage of unidirectional inflow of foreign capital, and gradually entered the stage where the inflow of foreign capital and outflow of domestic capital exist in parallel with each other. The real estate prices in foreign markets fell down deeply after the global financial crisis, exerting greater appeal to domestic capital, thus attracting some private capital to flow to foreign real estate markets.
4. By the end of 2012, the real estate market has generally become stable, yet the pressure of housing price rise is still large
(1) The number of cities where the housing prices increased on a month-on-month basis continued to increase, and the price growth margin expanded slightly. According to statistics released by National Bureau of Statistics in December 2012 about the change of sales prices of residential houses in 70 large- and medium-sized cities, compared with the previous month, among these 70 cities, 8 ones saw price decline in newly built commodity residential houses (not including affordable houses), 8 ones saw basically no change in price, and 54 ones saw price rise; 15 ones saw price decline in second-hand residential houses, 9 ones saw basically no change in price, and 46 ones saw price rise. Though the month-on-month price rises of the two kinds of residential houses both did not exceed 1.2%, the number of cities saw month-on-month price rise continued to increase compared with that in November, and the margin of price rise expanded slightly, showing that the pressure of housing price rise still exists.
(2) The capital pressure of real estate enterprises has been gradually eased, indicating the sales have gradually been improved. In the first half of 2012, the real estate enterprises were facing rather severe capital pressure, as illustrated by the fact that the growth of the paid-in capital of the real estate enterprises during January to April fell to 5.1%. Since May, along with the improvement of the sales situation in the real estate market, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises was gradually eased. In 2012, the paid-in capital of the real estate enterprises was 9653.8 billion yuan, increased by 12.7% from the previous year.
III. Analysis of future market trend and policy trend
1. It is expected that there is still high pressure in stabilizing the housing prices in the future
In the long term, urbanization is still the most basic factor supporting the formation of housing demand. In the medium term, compared with inflation and other investment, real estate investment is still quite safe in preserving or increasing the value of assets. Thus, the demand for real estate investment will maintain exuberant for quite a long time. In the short term, the negative growth of the new construction area affects the supply of residential houses in the future 2-3 years, and will lead to more intense supply-demand relationship in residential houses in the future 2-3 years.
2. Demand regulation should be adhered to steadfastly
In the future, the main contradiction in China’s housing market will shift from the past inadequate supply to imbalance in the occupation of residential housing resources. Under this background, demand regulation should be adhered to steadfastly in the first place.
The first is to continue to implement limited purchasing policies in some cities which saw acute supply-demand contradictions in a certain period of time; the second is to stick to and improve differentiated credit loaning policies; and the third is to continue to promote the reform of real estate tax, giving full display to the role of taxation tools in guiding and regulating the demand for real estate properties.
3. The supply of ordinary commodity houses should be increased  
In order to improve the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market and strike a balance between supply and demand, supply should be increased while implementing demand management, especially the supply of ordinary commodity houses. At present, the key of increasing the supply of ordinary commodity houses lies in ensuring the supply of land.
The first is to improve the way of land supply, avoiding extremely high transaction price in land auction; the second is to improve planning on the land used for the construction of residential housing, and, in terms of spatial layout of land plots, attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of residential land and industrial land and their correlation; and the third is to dig the potential of land use, further promote the intensive development of industrial land, leaving space for the development of residential land.
4. The housing security system should be further improved
The government report delivered at the 18^th National People’s Congress required that, “Housing system that combines market allocation and government security should be established, and construction and management of affordable housing should be strengthened, so as to meet the basic needs of poor families.”
The first is to continue to strengthen the construction and management of affordable housing, speed up the transformation of shanty towns, and complete the task of building 6 million apartments of affordable housing in 2013; the second is to strengthen the late-period management of affordable housing, and improve the exit system for investment in affordable housing; and the third is to further improve the top-level design of affordable housing policies and institutional arrangements. 世联翻译公司完成房地产运行趋势英文翻译

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